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Google DeepMind Director of AGI Economics Alex Imas says that even with millions of agents and many autonomous organizations, growth could remain in the 4% to 5% range. He argues that AI could make output cheaper, allowing competition to push prices down so rising production is not fully reflected in dollar-measured GDP; double-digit growth would also require buyers with enough money to purchase that output.
数百万个 AI 智能体，增长率却仍可能维持在 4% 至 5%
——Google DeepMind 通用人工智能经济学总监 Alex Imas
“假设你有大量自主组织、数百万个智能体。在某种情况下，增长率仍会处于 4% 至 5% 左右的区间。”
因为 GDP 衡量的是花了多少美元，而不是生产了多少东西；当 AI 使某种东西的生产成本降至接近零时，竞争会压低它的价格。
因此，即使产量激增，其以美元计的价值也可能几乎不增长，就像自动化之后，农业占 GDP 的比重从约 40% 降至 2%，尽管粮食产量大幅上升。 要实现两位数增长，还需要有足够购买力的买家买下所有这些产出，同时不让价格暴跌。
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