Original post · AI translation
所有在用 AI 芯片的总算力每年增长 3.4 倍。 据 Epoch AI
但如果每年新购芯片的算力仅增长 2.5 倍，那么总算力的增速最终也会放缓至每年约 2.5 倍。https://t.co/FEAMWLc0LZ
自 2024 年初以来，每季度售出的 AI 芯片的算力按每年 2.5 倍的速度增长。这低于 2023 年约 6 倍的增速，当时的增长由英伟达新推出的 H100 GPU 带动。
一些证据表明，增长进一步放缓。但季度销售数据波动较大，而我们的数据恰好截止于英伟达开始交付下一代芯片之际；从历史上看，这一举措曾推动销量激增。这可能只是两代产品之间的短暂低谷。
有关这项分析的更多详情，请参阅我们的网站：https://t.co/rcxMLsJpcS
这些内容来自我们的 AI 芯片销售数据集。该数据集利用财务报告、公司披露信息等资料，估算种类广泛的芯片的算力、功耗和支出：https://t.co/t5f7LRClAI
Original
The computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, led by Nvidia’s then-new H100 GPU. Some evidence suggests growth slowed further. But quarterly sales are noisy, and our data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips, a move that has historically spiked sales. This could be a lull between generations. See our website for more details on the analysis: https://t.co/rcxMLsJpcS This is from our AI chip sales dataset, which uses financial reports, company disclosures, and more to estimate compute, power usage, and spending for a wide variety of chips: https://t.co/t5f7LRClAI