原帖引用 · AI 翻译
算力稀缺让 SpaceX 受益，算力充裕让 Anthropic 受益。公平竞争。https://t.co/M9sxDYKU26
@rohanpaul_ai 当然，反过来也一样。如果算力变得充裕且便宜，SpaceX 的收入就会下降。
赌场里，任何一方都别哭。
原文
@rohanpaul_ai It works both ways, of course. If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop. No crying in the casino for either party.
Chamath 说，如果数据中心供应趋紧，SpaceX 可以提前 90 天通知 Anthropic，终止双方的算力协议，再以原价的 2 至 3 倍重新提供，而 Anthropic 将不得不接受。
“所以，你在 SpaceX 资产负债表上看到的来自 Ant 的任何收入，都可能变成 2 至 3 倍，而 ANT 除了立即屈服、接受更高价格之外别无选择。这也会让其他所有超大规模云服务商看到，他们距离实现最优的经济收益还很远。因此，这会迫使他们考虑：我应该把算力留给自己用吗？
我应该把算力卖给其他人吗？这接着会迫使那些新兴云服务商拿出他们筹集的全部资金，无论是债务融资还是股权融资，然后说：‘我有 2 个选择，其中 1 个是今天按任何能买到的价格，尽可能多地购买算力，因为另一条路对我来说必然是毁灭和破产，因为我会彻底出局。’”
那么，他们会怎么做？他们会在最后关头拼尽全力，动用一切手段。
所以，所有博弈论上的考量都归结于这 1 笔交易，以及 Elon 是否决定撕毁它，因为如果他撕毁了，事情就不得了。
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完整视频见 YouTube 上的“All-In Podcast”频道（链接在评论中）
原文
Chamath says that if data center supply tightens, SpaceX could end its compute deal with Anthropic on 90 days notice and bring it back at 2x to 3x the price, and Anthropic would have to take it. "So, whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from Ant could two to 3x and ANT would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price. It would also show all of the other hyperscalers that they are very far away from having economic yield that is optimized. And so then it forces them to consider should I be giving it to myself? Should I be selling it to the other people? It then forces the Neoclouds to take all of this money that they've raised, whether it's debt or equity, and say, "I have two choices, which is to buy as much compute today as I can at whatever price it's available because the other path is assured destruction and bankruptcy for me because I am just out of the game." And so, what do they do? They will take the last gasp and do whatever they have. So all the game theory comes down to this one deal and whether Elon decides to rip it because if he rips it, watch out. ---- Full video on "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)