Original post · AI translation
Chamath 说，如果数据中心供应趋紧，SpaceX 可以提前 90 天通知 Anthropic，终止双方的算力协议，然后以 2 至 3 倍的价格重新提供算力，而 Anthropic 将不得不接受。
“所以，你在 SpaceX 资产负债表上看到的来自 Ant 的任何收入，都可能增长到原来的 2 至 3 倍，而 ANT 别无选择，只能立即让步，接受更高的价格。这也会让所有其他超大规模云服务商看到，他们离实现优化后的经济收益还差得很远。因此，这就迫使他们考虑：我应该把算力留给自己用吗？”
“我应该把它卖给其他人吗？”这又迫使新兴云服务商拿着他们筹集的所有资金，无论是债务融资还是股权融资，说：“我有两个选择：要么今天以任何可获得的价格尽可能多地购买算力，因为另一条路对我来说必然是毁灭和破产，我会彻底出局。”
那么，他们会怎么做？他们会孤注一掷，竭尽所能。
所以，所有的博弈论分析最终都落在这一笔交易上，以及埃隆是否决定撕毁它；如果他撕毁了，就要当心了。
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完整视频见 YouTube 频道“All-In Podcast”（链接在评论中）
Original
Chamath says that if data center supply tightens, SpaceX could end its compute deal with Anthropic on 90 days notice and bring it back at 2x to 3x the price, and Anthropic would have to take it. "So, whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from Ant could two to 3x and ANT would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price. It would also show all of the other hyperscalers that they are very far away from having economic yield that is optimized. And so then it forces them to consider should I be giving it to myself? Should I be selling it to the other people? It then forces the Neoclouds to take all of this money that they've raised, whether it's debt or equity, and say, "I have two choices, which is to buy as much compute today as I can at whatever price it's available because the other path is assured destruction and bankruptcy for me because I am just out of the game." And so, what do they do? They will take the last gasp and do whatever they have. So all the game theory comes down to this one deal and whether Elon decides to rip it because if he rips it, watch out. ---- Full video on "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
Chamath：中期选举后冻结数据中心建设，会有利于超大规模云服务商（Amazon、Meta、Microsoft、Google 和 SpaceX），并损害所有租用算力的人的利益。
超大规模云服务商已经建有数据中心并掌握电力资源，因此冻结建设会让他们持有的资源变得更加稀缺、更有价值。
新兴云服务商以及 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等实验室每年都需要多得多的算力来实现增长，而冻结建设会切断他们原本指望获得的新供应。
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完整视频见 YouTube 频道“All-In Podcast”（链接在评论中）
Original
Chamath: A data center freeze after the midterm election helps the hyperscalers (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google and SpaceX) and hurts everyone who rents compute. The hyperscalers already have built data centers and power, so a freeze makes what they hold scarcer and worth more. Neoclouds and labs like OpenAI and Anthropic need much more compute every year to grow, and a freeze cuts off the new supply they were counting on. ---- Full video on "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)