原帖引用 · AI 翻译
估值大师、教授阿斯沃斯·达莫达兰刚刚发表了一篇长文，估计 Anthropic 的价值为 1.475 万亿美元。
他说，Anthropic 的投票权安排让 7 位联合创始人通过单一股份持有 50.1% 的投票权，“会让金正恩都自愧不如”。
> Anthropic 增长迅速，但增速正在放缓：上半年营收约为一年前的 14 倍，随后第三季度增长放缓，因为 OpenAI 抢得了市场份额，而 Anthropic 的算力不足。
> 上半年账面上的 807 亿美元亏损主要来自 720 亿美元的非现金债券费用；实际经营亏损略高于 80 亿美元，而 Anthropic 称其上季度实现了经营盈利。
> 最大的风险是超过 6000 亿美元的算力承诺：即使增长停滞，这笔固定款项仍须支付；与此同时，创始人掌握 50.1% 的投票权，上市后的公众股东几乎没有发言权。
原文
Dean of Valuation Professor Aswath Damodaran just published a long post valuing Anthropic at $1.475T. He says Anthropic’s voting setup, where 7 co-founders hold 50.1% of votes through a single share, “would put Kim Jong Un to shame.” > Anthropic is growing fast but slowing: first-half revenue was about 14x a year earlier, then third-quarter growth cooled as OpenAI won share and Anthropic ran short of compute. > The headline $80.7B first-half loss is mostly a $72B non-cash bond charge; the real operating loss was just over $8B, and Anthropic says it made an operating profit last quarter. > The biggest risk is over $600B in compute commitments, a fixed bill owed even if growth stalls, while founders hold 50.1% of votes, leaving public shareholders little say.