Article · AI translation
IT Home reported on November 9 that IDC released a report today stating that, as the humanoid robot and embodied AI industries develop, competition among dexterous hands has expanded beyond hardware specifications such as degrees of freedom and grip strength to fine manipulation, perception and control, and the ability to work with embodied AI models. Current core demand for dexterous hands is concentrated in integration with humanoid robots, research and education, and embodied AI data collection, while industrial and other large-scale applications remain in the exploratory stage.
IDC estimates that global shipments of dexterous hands will reach approximately 25,000 units in 2026, excluding manufacturers’ internal shipments for integration into their own robot products. Chinese manufacturers are expected to account for more than 85% of global shipments, giving them an important position in the global dexterous hand market.
The report says the dexterous hand industry is still in its early stages of development, and that subsequent growth will be influenced by factors including progress in robot applications, product costs and the pace of commercial deployment.
Competition is shifting from hardware specifications to overall manipulation capability. The four main technical approaches to dexterous hands are currently tendon-driven, direct-drive, linkage-driven and hybrid-drive systems. Each involves trade-offs in compactness, flexibility, force transmission, cost and maintenance, and no unified technical direction has yet emerged. The choice of approach depends not only on hardware design but also closely on the target tasks and application needs.
Beyond hardware specifications, tactile perception and manipulation control are also core dimensions of competition. Dexterous hands need to sense contact conditions, applied forces and changes in objects, then adjust their movements dynamically. Current tactile sensors still have room for improvement in signal stability, consistency and sensing accuracy. More degrees of freedom do not necessarily mean stronger manipulation capabilities, and the importance of perception and control continues to rise. Industry competition is expanding from individual hardware metrics to controllability, fine manipulation, and coordination with the robot body and embodied AI models. The competitive outcome for different technical approaches will depend more on how well they fit specific tasks than on any single specification.
Core demand is currently concentrated in humanoid robot integration and research settings, while industrial deployment remains to be validated. At this stage, the main sources of demand for dexterous hands are integration with humanoid robots, research and education, and embodied AI model development and data collection. Industrial manufacturing, logistics and other sectors are exploring their potential for complex grasping, object pose adjustment and tasks involving the manipulation of varied items, but applications overall remain in the exploratory stage.
The report also says dexterous hands cannot necessarily replace traditional grippers across the board. In production processes involving objects of fixed shapes, highly repetitive tasks and strict cycle-time requirements, traditional grippers often offer advantages such as simple structures, lower costs and ease of maintenance. The value of dexterous hands is more apparent in tasks requiring coordinated use of multiple fingers, precise contact or greater manipulation flexibility, but their actual advantages still need to be assessed against specific processes.
In addition, as dexterous hands move from research prototypes to sustained operation, they still need to address reliability, environmental adaptability and maintenance costs. Complex mechanical structures, multi-joint actuation and sensor integration make design and maintenance more difficult, while dust, contact wear and long-term operation may also affect product performance. For practical applications, successfully completing an action once is not enough. Users are more concerned with whether equipment can perform tasks continuously and reliably in real-world environments, and whether efficiency gains can cover equipment, maintenance and integration costs.
IDC believes that over the next three years, dexterous hands will move from “exploring technical approaches” into a phase of “engineering competition,” with market competition centered on four areas:
First, market demand will expand from research and development and data collection to applications for specific tasks. In the short term, research and education, integration with humanoid robots, and embodied AI data collection will remain the core sources of demand, while the practical value of applications in industrial manufacturing, logistics and services needs further validation;
Second, technical competition will shift from hardware specifications to structural design and overall manipulation capability. Different actuation approaches will coexist for a long time. Product competition will involve optimizing the design of core components such as motors, electronic controls, reducers and lead screws, as well as balancing compactness, actuation performance and reliability. Visual and tactile perception, fine control and the ability to work with embodied AI models will directly affect real-world manipulation performance;
Third, competition will extend beyond the hardware itself to coordination among models, data and skills. Manipulation models, data resources, skill libraries and development tools are gradually becoming priorities for manufacturers. Differences among manufacturers will be reflected in whether they can effectively combine hardware, models, data and skills and translate them into consistent task performance;
Fourth, reliability, cost and delivery capability will shape the competitive landscape. As users move from research testing to practical applications, manufacturers will need to address long-term operation, product consistency, maintenance and cost control.
Overall, the dexterous hand market will remain in a phase in which multiple technical approaches coexist and applications continue to be validated over the next three years. The key to industry competition is whether manufacturers can effectively combine structural design, core components, perception and control, models and data around specific tasks, while striking a balance among manipulation performance, reliability and total cost. Whether dexterous hands can move beyond research and testing into broader commercial use will ultimately have to be judged by their performance on tasks in real-world settings.