Article · AI translation
IT Home reported on November 13 that, according to Fortune on the 12th local time, AI startup Anthropic is approaching one of the most closely watched IPOs in history. Yet on the eve of its listing, Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang suddenly resigned.
By the time Anthropic officially enters the capital markets, only a week will have passed since the AI industry lost one of its most influential and most effective promoters of the industry's prospects.
Huang's sudden departure has added new pressure to Anthropic's listing plans.
The IPO was already seen as an important test of investors' enthusiasm for AI investment. Anthropic is expected to list on November 18 or 19, just after Nvidia releases its first quarterly earnings report since Huang stepped down as CEO.
Nvidia is not only a major partner of Anthropic but is also deeply involved in the IPO. Documents filed by Anthropic show that Nvidia agreed to subscribe for about $10 billion in shares in a $26 billion private placement taking place alongside the IPO.
The two companies also have close business ties: Anthropic has committed to spending tens of billions of dollars to secure access to Nvidia's most advanced chips.
Several investors and analysts said that while the personnel change at Nvidia is not expected to affect Anthropic's core business, it could shake market confidence in the AI industry as a whole.
Jay Goldberg, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, is one of the few people on Wall Street to give Nvidia stock a sell rating. He believes Huang's departure will not affect Anthropic's listing: “Their listing happens to coincide with Nvidia's earnings release, and I don't think this will disrupt the listing plans. This IPO is simply too big, and too many people are involved. They won't withdraw it.”
Goldberg is more concerned about Anthropic's situation after it lists. Even before Huang formally resigned, reports had circulated that he might leave.
Goldberg warned at the time that turmoil at Nvidia, especially the loss of its CEO, would put pressure on Anthropic when it releases its first quarterly earnings report after listing. “At the very least, the market will start asking: ‘Can the AI boom continue? Can it keep developing like this?’ Anthropic will face sharper questions.”
Carl Aloma, a partner at venture capital firm M13, likewise believes Anthropic's fundamentals have not changed: “In my view, Anthropic is in just as good a position and is just as strong as it was before the news broke. Anthropic's financial figures are excellent, and it clearly has more computing capacity in reserve than it needs. They haven't spent that much money.”
Anthropic is also less dependent on Nvidia than some competitors. In addition to Nvidia hardware, Anthropic uses Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium chips and AMD GPUs to run some of its AI models. Anthropic is also reportedly considering developing its own chips.
Francine McKenna, an accountant and investigative journalist who previously taught at the Wharton School, believes Nvidia's investment commitment to Anthropic is unlikely to be affected: “Nvidia has committed to investing $10 billion when Anthropic lists. When the IPO actually gets underway, that investment will most likely still go through. But if anyone is counting on Nvidia to come to CoreWeave's rescue if necessary, they may have to find another backer.”
However, Jason Schloetzer, an associate professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, believes Nvidia's recent turmoil and questions about Huang's judgment could also bring its partners under closer scrutiny. He expects the market to examine Anthropic's ties to Nvidia and Nvidia's customers more closely.
In Silicon Valley, Anthropic and its rival OpenAI have such enormous funding needs that nearly every venture capital firm holds stakes in both companies, giving the two companies a position in the private market akin to that of index funds.
As a result, Anthropic's IPO, expected next week, will be a pivotal opportunity for investors to cash in, affecting not only the interests of more than 400 investors but also the outlook for the entire AI boom.
The prevailing view in the market is that a successful Anthropic listing would mean the AI boom still has considerable room to grow; a failed listing or an indefinite postponement, by contrast, would send a clear negative signal that the AI bubble is close to bursting.
However, Huang's departure may not derail Anthropic's listing. At least one venture capitalist believes Anthropic could benefit instead. The two sides also disagree on AI regulation; Huang is particularly opposed to licensing requirements that could make it harder for customers to use open-source AI models.
An anonymous venture capitalist said: “If there is any impact, I actually think Anthropic will benefit from it. Their relationship with Huang was never that close... Anthropic is also developing its own chips, so the space opening up in the supply chain works in its favor.”