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Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X· · Original publication time AI score54

Study tests Gemini, Qwen3 and OLMo: Models’ unaided random choices fail statistical testsMachine translation

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Researchers asked Gemini, Qwen3 and OLMo models to sample from simple distributions 1,024 times each. Every reported statistical test for matching the target odds failed, and changing temperature or top-p did not fix it. In a security game, Gemini’s choices let attackers win 96.6% to 99.9% of the time, versus 75% with truly random checks.

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https://t.co/nlSxKMp6HA

Title: "The Illusion of Stochasticity in LLMs"

ReplyRohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
New Google DeepMind paper finds that AI models cannot make truly random choices on their own, but larger models pick correctly when a computer program gives them a random number first. Agents often need to pick actions at random with set odds, like checking servers in an unpredictable order. LLMs say they will pick uniformly, then keep landing on favorites like 7, 42, or answer C. They asked Gemini, Qwen3, and OLMo models to sample from simple distributions 1024 times each. They also tried other temperature and sampling settings, and gave models a random number to convert. Every reported statistical test for matching the target odds failed, and changing temperature or top-p did not fix it. In a security game where truly random checks let attackers win 75% of the time, Gemini's picks let them win 96.6% to 99.9%. If your agent needs randomness, generate it in code and pass it in, instead of asking the model to be random.
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