原帖引用 · AI 翻译
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数百万个 AI 智能体，而增长率仍可能处于 4% 至 5% 的区间
——谷歌 DeepMind 的 AGI 经济学主管 Alex Imas
“假设你有大量自主组织、数百万个智能体。在一种可能的情况下，增长率仍然会处于 4% 至 5% 左右的区间。”
因为 GDP 衡量的是花了多少美元，而不是生产了多少东西；当 AI 让某种产品的生产成本降至几乎为零时，竞争会压低它的价格。
因此，产出可能激增，而其以美元计的价值却几乎没有增长；正如自动化之后，农业占 GDP 的比重从约 40% 降至 2%，尽管食品产量大幅上升。
要实现两位数增长，还需要买家有足够的钱购买所有这些产出，同时不导致价格暴跌。
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原文
Millions of AI agents, and growth could still sit at 4% to 5% ~ Google DeepMind Director of AGI Economics Alex Imas "Let's say you have tons of autonomous organizations, millions of agents. There's a state of the world where you're still in like the 4% to 5% growth zone." Because, GDP measures dollars spent, not how much stuff gets made, and when AI makes something nearly free to produce, competition drives its price down. So output can explode while its dollar value barely grows, just as farming went from about 40% of GDP to 2% after automation even though food production soared. Double-digit growth would also need buyers with enough money to purchase all that output without prices collapsing. ---- Full video on "MTS" YouTube channel, (link in comment)