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Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
Borrowing to build AI data centers has grown about 5x since 2023, to more than $680B this year, and now makes up nearly a third of all investment-grade corporate borrowing.
The money is also moving away from simple corporate bonds toward loans, project finance, high-yield debt and private deals. Those forms are riskier and harder to track, so nobody can say for sure how much AI debt exists.
Fed releases financial stability report
> AI is now the top financial risk for Wall Street. 87% of the market pros the New York Fed polled named it, up from 50% in spring.
> The Fed says “market enthusiasm for super intelligence” is part of why stock valuations are so high.
> Debt raised for AI infrastructure passed $680B by October. That’s about 5x all of 2023 and about 31% of investment-grade corporate borrowing.
> Big tech and chipmakers also carry over $3T in future leases and guarantees, so their real AI exposure may be far larger than their reported debt.
> GPU makers guarantee the value of the chips they sell to AI firms and often invest in those same buyers, which creates “circular financing.”
> The largest US banks have close to $1T of exposure to big tech, data center builders and the vehicles that finance them.
> Hyperscaler spending as a share of GDP may soon pass the 1990s telecom boom.
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